WHAT'S NEW: MyPest Page - IPM Pest and Plant Disease Models and Forecasting - for Agricultural, Pest Management, and Plant Biosecurity Decision Support in the US
Log of What's New -
The Oregon State University Oregon IPM Center, in cooperation with The National Plant Diagnostic Network
(NPDN), USDA NIFA (Western and other Regional IPM Centers, NRI/AFRI Plant Biosecurity, EIP, CPPM ARDP, Cooperative Extension Service, others), the IPM PIPE programs and USDA RMA, APHIS PPQ, numerous grower-supported weather networks,
Oregon Climate Service, the OSU PRISM Group, the Western Weather Systems Workgroup, various regional Climate Hubs, the USA National Phenology Network, other Universities, NOAA, NWS, NRCS, the US Bureau of Reclamation, and others,
has been working to make real-time daily weather data, degree-days, forecasts, pest and plant disease risk models and maps available to serve
plant biosecurity, agricultural and pest management needs for the US and SW Canada. These formatted weather data, degree-days, and
pest model products are kept current and relevant for
decision support for Extension personnel, growers and farm managers, consultants, invasive species surveys, regulatory needs, researchers, and students. Please
take 2-5 minutes and fill out our User Survey and give us feedback so we may better meet your particular needs.
LOG OF WHATS NEW
- We haved moved uspest.org to a new server starting today. This should provide faster model runs, and provide more disk space for upcoming projects. Hopefully you will not see any downtime for most tools at the site, but bear with us over the next several days/weeks. Also, we are not yet done updating some tools for 2024, so let us know if you need a tool that is not working or up-to-date.
- Updated DD model run tallies https://uspest.org/wea/uspest.org_tally_update_Jan_2024.pdf to include 2023 data. Usage of this website continues to be strong. The newer interfaces (email "push" notifications, dd/model_app) continue to grow in usage, while older interfaces also continue to remain popular. In 2023 we counted over 56,000 insect, 5,800 CROPTIME vegetable, 4,500 plant disease, 1,500 agronomic crop, and 450 weed model runs, plus over 30,000 DD calculator model runs. Total model runs continue to increase: 100,000 runs in 2023 vs 79,000 runs in 2022 vs. 60,000-68,000 in recent years.
- Added model for the weed Japanese knotweed, researched and requested by colleagues at the University of Minnesota. This is a highly invasive weed throughout N. America. We implemented a model for Japanese knotweed psyllid, a newly released biocontrol agent, previously.
- Updated name for spongy moth (formerly gypsy moth).
- Added model for the spotted lanternfly, an invasive pest of numerous crops including grapes. Try it out at:
uspest.org/dd/model_app?spp=slf. This model is based primarily on analysis of numerous field studies on the phenology of this species in eastern U.S. states where it has established and is rapidly spreading.
- Added model for the boxwood leafminer, a major pest of boxwood. Try it out at:
uspest.org/dd/model_app?spp=bxlm. This model is a reworking of the model by d'Eustachio and Raupp (2001). It is unknown whether this model will perform well outside of Maryland/New England states. Let us know if you have access to adult emergence data for other states.
- Updated DD model run tallies https://uspest.org/wea/uspest.org_tally_update_Feb_2023.pdf to include 2022 data. Usage of this website continues to be strong. The newer interfaces (email "push" notifications, dd/model_app) continue to grow in usage, while older interfaces also continue to remain popular. In 2022 we counted over 41,000 insect, 2,700 CROPTIME vegetable, 3,200 plant disease, 1,000 agronomic crop, and 390 weed model runs, plus over 30,000 DD calculator model runs. Total model runs are up slightly: 79,000 runs in 2022 vs. 60,000-68,000 in recent years.
- We have added some features to model_app, including weather file upload (by the user) and CSV save (making the data easier to drop into spreadsheets). Note also that this tool may be used for overwintering models, say start date Oct 1 2022 and end date May 31 2023, allowing this app to be used for models such as winter wheat, and for anywhere in the world for people who have their own weather data. Upload of data in Celsius also facilitates use of this app world-wide.
- Added a page for Emerald Ash Borer Model for Oregon with interactive maps that predict the date of first pupation, first adults, first egg hatch, and current major stage present.
- A model for seedcorn maggot has been added to uspest.org, in response to requests by growers and Extension specialists in Oregon.
- The WSU model for pear psylla has been added to uspest.org, in response to requests by growers and Extension specialists in Oregon and Washington.
- Updated tally of model runs, https://uspest.org/wea/uspest.org_tally_update_Feb_2022.pdf, for phenology (DD) models. In 2021 we counted over 28,000 insect, 3,000 CROPTIME vegetable, 1,600 plant disease, 700 agronomic crop, and 260 weed models, plus over 31,000 DD calculator model runs. We updated our counting program to better filter out bots so counts are more accurate than in prior years.
In tracking user interface usage, we continue to find increased usage of the newest mobile app interface (/dd/model_app), in 2021 with over 16,000 runs. We are also beginning to track the email notification "push" system usage, which is new for 2021.
- We have extended the new "Push" Notification system to add three more plant disease models: dollar spot of turf, and MELCAST for both muskmelon and watermelon.
- We updated the weather station database to include about 8,000 additional stations. Early tests show that apps such as "MyPest Page" may now be running a bit slow due to the additional processing time. We will keep an eye on this and take steps to improve performance where possible.
We have added an option to the new "Push" Notification system to allow custom models to be created by end-users who can now take any reported degree-day model and enter the parameters into our system. Sign up at:
Chris Hedstrom, Communications and Outreach Coordinator at the Oregon IPM Center, created a 13-minute training video for the push notification system on YouTube. This covers how to sign-in, pick weather stations and models, and create a schedule to receive model outputs in your email inbox.
We have extended the new "Push" Notification system to include all 135+ phenology/degree-day models in our system, so that you can receive emails with model predictions according to the schedule that you prescribe. This system is fully integrated with our 9 plant disease models with "push" notifications. Sign up at:
uspest.org/push. This is a "soft" rollout in that we have not made a formal announcement thus far. In fact the full system has been active now for over a month. Let us know if you would like to help us test the new system.
There is a new "Push" Notification system that is currently available for 9 plant disease models, sign up at:
uspest.org/push. This system works like our mobile-friendly apps, but sends an automated email for days and months of your selection. We are working on the next version that incorporates all (ca. 135) degree-day models in our platform. Let us know if you would like to help us test the new system.
1. The https://uspest.org/dd/mapper program has been updated a bit. It now produces .tif files from R Raster, and ARC ASCII files from the GRASS GIS program that either smooths the 4KM .tif file to a higher apparent resolution, or if the hi-resolution option is selected, uses our GWR downscaling algorithm to increase the resolution to 800m. We also added a basic metadata file to the output.
2. We updated our DD model stats, at
https://uspest.org/wea/uspest.org_hits_tally_update_Feb_2021.pdf. In 2020 we counted over 21,000 insect, 3,000 CROPTIME (vegetable), 2,000 plant disease DD, 350 agronomic crop, and 200 weed DD model runs, plus over 71,000 generic DD model runs, or 98,000 total. We now (approximately) track the usage rates of the various interfaces to our 130+ DD models. The newest and most recommended interface, https://uspest.org/dd/model_app, is gaining in popularity but still is behind usage of /dd/model (featuring multiple start dates) and "MyPest Page" that integrates hourly-driven models with DD models. Our older "legacy" interfaces are still heavily used, with over 23,000 runs via ddmodel.us, 2,000 runs via GRASSLinks (map access), 1,900 runs via our State and Network Tables, and 940 from our DD model database listing (/cgi-bin/sdb/viewdb). If you have used our system for a long time, we prefer not to force you to move to a new/different interface. If you are new, just use dd/model_app, unless you would like to compare the trade-offs of the different interfaces for fun/in your spare time!.
As per agreements made with the Director of WSU AgWeatherNet, we have resumed access to data from a small number of weather stations in this network, especially to support models that provide decision support for Hop growers. These stations include the following:
Corvallis.E, Silverton.N, Prosser.NE, Roza, Grandview, Sunnyside, Granger, Moxee.E, Konnowac, Toppenish, Mabton.E, Wapato, Parker, Outlook, Sunside.N, Sunside.NE, Moxee.SE, Snipes.Mtn
Other models may also be run using these sites. WSU is not allowing access to other stations in this network.
1. We have refined the settings and interface for the "Push" apps noted on 7/6/20 below. We are seeking feedback on their ease-of-use and utility. Please let us know if you would like to be a beta tester of these new apps.
2. We added a new invasive spieces model for Egyptian cottonworm, Spodoptera littoralis, a pest of many crops in Europe and the Middle East. In support of the USDA APHIS PPQ CAPS program.
We added a new invasive spieces model for Sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps, a potential serious threat to wheat and barley. In support of the USDA APHIS PPQ CAPS program.
We updated our google maps subscription as every year they temporarily disable it; in the process we also repaired our googlemaps interface to daily DD maps, such as NW_41nw, so now the zoomable map overlays are correct and legends are working now.
We repaired the broken DD mapper program,
https://uspest.org/dd/mapper which provides our current-best way to make your own DD maps using your own thresholds. Our older interface, https://uspest.org/cgi-bin/usmapmaker.pl has been working except for making 30-year average maps. It also has an interactive interface so you can query DDs by clicking in the map.
We have released several new plant disease infection risk mobile-friendly "Apps" with email "Push" notifications (links to older synoptic maps also shown where available):
1. Apple Scab:
2. Botrytis and experimental soybean rust:
(App remains under review) Synoptic Map
3. Boxwood Blight:
Mobile App (also available from Play Stores),
4. Cherry powdery mildew:
6. Grape powdery mildew:
7. Grass seed stem rust:
8. Hop powdery mildew (both susceptible and new resistant vars):
9. Pear scab:
10. Potato-tomato late blight:
11. Tomcast DSV: Synoptic Map
Please give them a try and let us know if you have issues/suggestions for improvements.
Added new degree-day model for the Silver Y Moth, Autographa gamma, a high risk invasive insect that is related to the alfalfa looper, and potentially a pest of numerous field and vegetable crops. Supported by USDA APHIS PPQ for the CAPS (Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey) program.
Added a link to our DDRP platform from our homepage, now five years in development to support monitoring and management
of invasive pest species. Supported by USDA APHIS PPQ for the CAPS (Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey) program.
Minor updates to the pine tree lappet moth (invasive insect) model. Updated model analysis spreadsheet/PDF located at:
http://uspest.org/wea/Dendrolimus_pini_model.pdf. This was for
parameterizing our DDRP model. We expect to link to DDRP outputs and set up a home page soon for this spatial modeling platform.
A few bugs are now repaired, such as the DD graphs in "MyPest" page. We still have issues with regard to which extended forecast is selected vs. what actually appears in the graph. We added three bean varieties to the CROPTIME vegetable models. The DD calculator at dd/model_app is back to our best version for most needs including mobile device usage, and the extended forecast matches with the one selected. Our CFSv2 3 month forecast looks to be expiring due to long ago expired grants with Fox Weather. The NMME 7-month forecast should be working OK however.
We have been working to update the system for the new year, checking all tools and debugging them as needed. Our recommended DD calculator at dd/model_app currently has lingering issues mainly in using forecasts (we think due a leap year bug). For now, we recommend using our older programs like cgi-bin/ddmodel.us that have been updated and are working fine, and now even handle year cross-over needs, whereby the start date could be e.g. Dec 1 2019 and the end date could be e.g. March 1 2020. We hope to fix the issues with dd/model_app soon.
Added a new model for tomato leafminer, Tuta absoluta, a major pest of tomato and other solanaceae, not yet in the US but a major problem in S. America, Africa, and Europe. For APHIS PPQ.
We revised our #1 phenology modeling tool, uspest.org/dd/model_app, with 2 minor improvements: First, the tabs at the top stay at the top as you scroll to the bottom of the page, making the tabs always accessible; Second, we added some "Next" hints, such as to click on the "Model" tab after selecting a weather station, and to click on "Output" or "Graph" to run the model once it has been selected. We had feedback that folks were looking for the button to run the model (which is still there on our older model interfaces), not realizing that this tab-based interface uses tabs for model output.
Added a new model for honeydew moth, Cryptoblabes gnidiella, a polyphagous invasive insect that particularly may attack crops such as citrus, grape, avocado, and pomegranite. For APHIS PPQ.
Updated station list to 32,896 stations total in our database, up 3,010 stations from before. We had an issue the past few years that was preventing new stations in Mesowest from getting added to our system, now fixed. This increase includes about 100 new stations in OR and WA (each), and 22 new stations in ID. We have also added CoAgMet, the Colorado Agricultural Network, with around 83 weather stations and data going back to mid 2017.
Fixed two minor issues with the Vapor Drift model (click on graph to popup table) in MyPest Page: 1) Link to model now to brief documentation (was link to a different model doc file), 2) Fixed pop-up table colors so both graph and table are now more legible.
Changed the uspest.org and uspest.org/wea home pages to prioritize our newer interfaces to degree-day models, which we recommend in this order: dd/model_app (designed for mobile devices, includes highcharts and Celsius), /dd/model (designed for CROPTIME w/multiple start dates, new highcharts, no Celsius), "MyPest page" (integrates multiple DD and hourly weather-driven models), cgi-bin/ddmodel.us (older interface includes celsius, older gnuplot graphs), and then a couple others. We also updated the /dd/model and /cgi-bin/ddmodel.us interfaces so that the inputs would be less crowded, as per user feedback.
Added six new models for sweet corn (example for Kokanee), continuing our CROPTIME vegetable phenology modeling project. See model documentation for more details.
Added a new model for bronze birch borer, Agrilus anxius, a flat-headed wood boring beetle, and a birch pest native to the eastern U.S. By request of OSU Extension.
Our use of googlemaps was interrupted for a day or so; and may continue due to browser caching issues. If you get an error message in googlemaps, you might reload the page and clear your browser cache. On a cell phone, this may require going into settings for the particular app (including the degree-day models app and the boxwood blight app), storage, then "CLEAR CACHE" (applies to Android cell phones). This should allow the app to load googlmaps using our updated key. Googlemaps interface to daily DD maps should be working by tomorrow.
A new model for false codling moth, Thaumatotibia leucotreta, a polyphagous invasive insect that particularly may attack crops such as citrus, corn, cotton, macadamia, avocado, stone fruits, pepper, and tomato. This insect is native to Sub-saharan Africa and generally needs warmer (warm Mediterranean, subtropical or warmer) climates to survive.
1) Working with David Gent, USDA ARS Corvallis, we have updated the model for hop powdery mildew, so for at least the more susceptible varieties, the index can be expected to predict disease more accurately. It tracks relative disease risk for all varieties, of course, but the less susceptible varieties would be on a less frequent treatment schedule than the more susceptible varieties.
2) A bug was just recently reported and now has been resolved. If you have been downloading data using the "Download Data" option in "MyPest Page (/risk/models)" (applies to some locations in Washington or Oregon only), you may have been downloading data that does not match the data shown in the graphs or displayed in the "display data table" option. The issue is now resolved and this option is now working as it should. Our apologies for any inconvenience. As always, errors can occur, so please check all data thoroughly, and use at your own risk.
Discovered a bug that hid access to an invasive species model: pine shoot beetle. Sorry about the lack of access - this species has established in certain states and may be under quarantine in some regions.
Revised the boxwood blight model so that it will not reset infections as quickly; Now instead of a very short 3 hr dry period to interrupt the infection process, it was set to a more conservative 5 hrs of dry period. This is based upon feedback from the field by folks using the model. The laboratory research had suggested that only 1-2 hrs is required. But feedback was that the model might not be predicting outbreaks sometimes, thus the calibration. We are awaiting more research results and more feedback before we make any further changes to the model.
Added four new CROPTIME models for tomato varieties, e.g. Tomato-Big Beef, with lead modeling by Heather Stoven, OSU Extension. Project lead: Nick Andrews.
Uploaded mobile - responsive Android version of our main DD model/calculator app to the Google app store (Apple/ios version to follow). Find it there by searching for "uspest". You may also try installing directly from here. We released this as a web program last month and linked to it from the shortcuts list of calculators here. We will continue to test and refine this version of the tool, and seek feedback from any and all users.
Updated Asian Longhorned Beetle slightly, based on reinterpretation of the data. The only significant difference is the timing for when overwintering larvae pupate - now corrected.
Added new model for T-Sum 200, used in Forage Management, OSU Forage Info System to time N fert. in pastures in the Pacific Northwest. By request of Dan Sullivan, Professor OSU Crop and Soil Science Dept.
Updated Montana crop models (see http://store.msuextension.org/publications/agandnaturalresources/mt200103ag.pdf), to be more in accordance with this recently updated publication, so that the starting date should correspond to the planting date, nominally set at Apr. 1. Our version of model events has not been updated to this newer source as yet, but correspond to the earlier reference we recieved from the author some years ago.
1) Added new model for small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) to DD modeling system. This is an invasive pest of solanaceae except perhaps for potato. 2) Model charts have changed slightly for improved readability.
We are converting our site to secure https:// rather than nonsecure http:// so issues with applications may arise. Please let us know if anything is not working correctly.
Updated boxwood blight mobile app (click on link or better yet download from your app or play store onto your mobile device) to use Google maps as an optional station-selection interface. This way of having users select their weather station code (enter search zipcode, city+state, or station code itself), with a search button to show nearby stations and a link to open Google maps, after testing, will be extended to as many other station selection programs as we are able. We expect to make use of this in a mobile app version of our main degree-day calculator within next couple of months.
Updated R to fix a bug in vers. 3.5.0 that stopped DDRP and our R-based DD mapping programs from running for past several weeks. Auto update can be a problem!
Our feed of AgWeatherNet data was restored on June 20. We have not yet determined how to restore earlier data for the year. Our weather estimation routines are probably adequate to use our degree-day models with good confidence, and now our hourly disease models should be fine to use as well. As always, use with caution!
The soil solarization model has been updated with the new highcharts output, with abilities including zoom, interactive tracing of data lines, and export to .png .pdf and other formats.
NOTE: Our feed of AgWeatherNet data has been down for the year thus far. We are working to restore it.
Our new "Boxwood Blight Infection Risk Model" is now also available from the Apple App Store for Apple mobile devices (free). We have added the feature for picking a nearby weather station. Currently we are working to incorporate a Google map station picker as an option. Let us know how it works for you, or better yet, please post a review on the App Store!
An Android mobile app is now available at Google Play Store for the Boxwood Blight Infection Risk Model (free). We are still adding features (in particular, for picking a nearby weather station; currently you must find a station by some other means and type it in yourself). Otherwise the app works and runs a version of the same model available from the "MyPest Page" here at this website, only more mobile-friendly. If you wish to run it from your web browser (on any device) rather than from downloading the app, use this link. It is the same program that the app calls when it runs.
Added new model to database: Helicoverpa armigera, old world bollworm, a potential invasive species that is related to the corn earworm, H. zea:
Old World Bollworm Model - added with support from APHIS PPQ.
Updated the Grass seed stem rust model inputs and outputs (with programming by John McQueen and Dan Upper, directed by Bill Pfender) to be 1) more mobile- and user-friendly, 2) with a new station selection map, 3) new entry data form, 4) ability to run the model for past dates to evaluate earlier cropping season decision making, and 5) additional "speed dial" output risk meters. The old charting output is retained in case you need the greater detail it offers. Our most complex model now has a much simpler interface!
Most features/products on this website new updated to work for 2018; including:
- dd/mapper - updated to include forecasts from NMME for 2018
- usmapmaker.pl - working
- dd/model - working; new version forthcoming
- ddmodel.us - working
- MyPest Page - working
1) Reorganized home page and fixed several bugs/broken links. Changes include:
2) Initial release of a NEW degree-day mapping calculator program based on the R Raster library, but keeping our older hybrid PRISM/station data "usmapmaker" program. New program differences include:
- Most links in same places but with better organization.
- We are trying to make the various ways/interfaces to our DD calc/modeling tools more clearly defined; some of
our long-term users may prefer some of the older interfaces so we are not ending them when possible.
- Fix to 2008 SNC model interface (optional vector layers no longer supported)
The new program is still being tested and debugged. Please let us know if you find issues in using it for your own needs.
- Mostly simpler and faster and not needing correction from station data
- Uses 4km resolution DAILY PRISM grids 1981 to current (w/800m downscaling option)
- PRISM data (see Data Explorer for details) is available as "early", "provisional", and "stable" depending on creation time
- Ability to use NOAA NMME and PRISM-based recent 10-year average data to FORECAST degree-days to the end of the year
- Legend included in PNG maps (with state lines and county lines for regions smaller than CONUS
- No interactive interface (makes PNG maps and .tif data for your own GIS program interface)
- Output map DD scale in Fahrenheit OR Celsius
Added new DD models for Spodoptera litura, common or cotton cutworm, and Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis, both invasive species native to Asia. Developed for the APHIS PPQ CPHST and the CAPS program.
Updated and improved our synoptic disease risk maps for Boxwood Blight, Tomcast DSV, Botrytis & (experimental) Soybean rust, Fireblight, and Tomato-potato late blight. Now when you load a map only 200 or so stations initially load, speeding up map display considerably. Then, to load more stations, just pan (click and drag the map even a small amount) or zoom the map (using Plus and Minus buttons) to keep loading more stations until you see a sufficient number for your needs (repeat as needed or until no more stations are loaded). Also, the stations with the best quality data (QA) are loaded first, and the lowest QA stations are now ignored. This will hopefully provide 1) faster, 2) more reliable, and 3) more efficient maps of disease risk for a wide variety of plant diseases. Remember you just click on any station pin to load "MyPest Page" (in a new tab) with that model showing disease risk over time at that station.
Added a new DD model for Aphalara itadori, Japanese knotweed psyllid, a native of Japan released in the W. U.S. as a biocontrol agent of Japanese knotweed (Reynoutria japonica). Developed for the DoD SERDP funded project focusing on adding photoperiod response to phenology models.
Added a new DD model for Diorhabda carinulata, N. tamarisk beetle, a native of China released in the W. U.S. as a biocontrol agent of saltcedar (Tamarix spp.). Developed for the DoD SERDP funded project focusing on adding photoperiod response to phenology models.
Added four new CROPTIME models for pepper varieties, e.g. Pepper-Stocky red roaster. with lead modeling by Heather Stoven, OSU Extension. Project lead: Nick Andrews.
Added a new DD model for Japanese Flower Thrips, Thrips setosus, a native of Japan and potential invasive insect in the USA. Developed for the APHIS PPQ CPHST, OR Dept. of Agric., and the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey (CAPS) program.
Refined new HighCharts degree-day charts used in dd/model interface. The new feature displays the selected year (if a past year) along with the year before and the year after, plus 10- and 30-year averages. These features allow the user to see predictions in a historical context from which to compare the target year. (NOTE still debugging this feature).
Fixed the server email function so now registration of virtual weather networks should be working again. Contact us if you would like to use this feature of our website. Its free but we are restricting use somewhat by requiring you to make a request directly to us for instructions on how to get started.
Fixed the "DD map overlays on googlemaps" feature in our DD maps pages. Now the images overlaid on the googlemaps are up-to-date rather than stuck on an old image. The query of DD totals remains working as before.
- 1. New model, potato/tomato psyllid, added to DD models. Pest of potato and tomato. Based on data from OR, WA, ID, other locations, with calibration using Oregon field data near Hermiston, Oregon. With support/by request of Silvia Rondon, OSU Entomologist.
- 2. New model, Thermal (vapor) drift risk, based on the use of dry bulb minus wet bulb = delta-T, as an estimate of thermal drift, first implemented in Australia. This plus using wind speed thresholds between 2 and 9 mph, provide tools to help avoid pesticide spray drift due to weather conditions. Developed as part of the Middle Rogue Pesticide Stewardship Partnership (PSP) project.
- 3. New feature, "Highcharts" interactive charting of DD models, as part of our new modeling platform, uspest.org/dd/model. This chart has numerous features not available in our older charting system, including: a) show data as you move the mouse, b) show model predictions using all available forecasts, with ability to turn off/on each one by clicking on the legend entry, c) ability to print or save the chart, d) Click and drag to zoom in on a portion of the chart. We hope to use this system for our other tools including charts in "MyPest Page" sometime soon.
- 4. Updated weather station list from Mesowest. Now over 29,000 weather stations in this system.
New model, threecornered alfalfa hopper, added to DD models. Pest of winegrapes and alfalfa. Based on data from CA and SE US. By request of Oregon Wine Research Institute.
NOAA CFSv2 3.5-month Extended Seasonal Forecast - NEW extended forecast option
Starting Oct 2016 we have a second new seasonal forecast - currently out 3.5 months, similar to NMME below except for these differences:
This forecast has been made an option for both DD modeling interfaces, CROPTIME dd/model and ddmodel.us (also used in "MyPest Page").
Like the NMME forecast, this forecast is a product of a grant provided by a USDA/NIFA/CPPM/ARDP project.
- 1. This is a single model (not an ensemble) known as the NCEP Couple Forecast Sy
stem model version 2 from NOAA.
- 2. The interpolation approach taken was to attempt to reconstruct reasonable "rainfall patterns" or episodes to emulate actual weather rather than to smoothly interpolate temperatures and rainfall amounts as was done with our NMME seasonal forecast.
- 3. The work is done by our collaborator Fox Weather LLC rather than by OSU IPPC.
- 4. The process only goes out for 3.5 months rather than 7 months.
- 5. The workflow may not be as stable.
Added a new DD model for Oak Ambrosia Beetle, Platypus quercivorus, a native of Japan and potential invasive insect in the USA. Developed for the APHIS PPQ CPHST and the CAPS program.
The degree-day model interface developed for the CROPTIME project, /dd/model, has been linked from our home page as an alternative
to using our older interface, /cgi-bin/ddmodel.us. The new interface has several new features: cleaner output, daylength calculator, better compatibility with handheld devices, and up to 4 start dates (linked to CROPTIME and a few other models only). It does not yet have these features: "ddclock" (compare current DD accumulations with previous years), or a graph of results (update: improved charts added 1/27/2017). Try the new interface and let us know how you like it.
1. 10-year average data now updated using 2006-2015 data. This was also set to auto-update, such that every month we will incorporate new observations (in the form of PRISM 4km gridded interpolations) into the average calculation.
2. Grass Seed Stem Rust simulation program now makes full use of all qualified weather stations, rather than being dependent upon a very small network that was set up in grass seed fields. Bill Pfender and IPPC have made numerous other updates to the program, including use of a 7-day forecast in the simulation.
3. There is a new model, uspest.org/soil/solarize, "soil solarization of Phytophthora species in nursery beds". Developed by Jennifer Park, Fumi Funahashi, and IPPC. The project was funded by the Western Region IPM Center, and has the potential to expand to include solarization for management of other pests including plant disease organisms, weeds, and arthropods (pending other sources of funding).
Still finding and repairing issues related to the server change. Just now we repaired/restored leaf wetness calculations used for most plant disease infection risk models such as apple scab, boxwood blight, blueberry mummy berry, and tomato potato late blight. Our apologies for not finding and repairing this problem earlier.
Added new model for pine tree lappet moth, Dendrolimus pini, a potential invasive pest of pines. Added as part of our project with APHIS PPQ CPHST.
Worked with Bill Pfender on an updated version of the grass seed stem rust model, STEMRUST_G, which is the new version with several new features including:
-Conversion of standard weather stations (w/many more choices and regions) covered to rust model-compatible stations
-Google-maps selection of weather stations
-New leaf wetness calculation algorithm
-Other model internal fixes and updates
Checklist of programs/services that seem to be restored and working for the most part:
Our 5-year old server for uspest.org "ENTO" has failed suddenly as of this morning and currently will not boot, so we have major issues in trying to restore weather data and web services. We switched to the new server "HOPPER" (which should give much better performance) and are working to restore everything one service at a time. Thanks for your patience. We are hoping everything more or less should be working by next Monday or so.
Added new model for Japanese pine sawyer beetle, Monochamus alternatus, a potential invasive pest of pines. Added as part of our project with APHIS PPQ CPHST.
Changed default DD modeling short-term (5-7 day) forecast from NWS NDFD to Fox/IPPC forecast, based on feedback from Hood River. This only applies to Western states. Will look into providing a menu option to over-ride the default. Changed Asian citrus psyllid model to biofix based on user-input new leaf flush date to match the known biology of ACP. Today marks 20 years for this online IPM decision support website. As for degree-day model runs, we have logged at least 388,696 to date (many have gone uncounted). For hourly-driven model runs, which we have even less complete accounting, we have logged approximately 310,000 runs as of the end of 2015. The site now has over 26,000 public weather stations linked to over 127 different pest, disease, and crop models.
Added 2 more weed models to the degree-day modeling system: redroot pigweed and lambsquarter, both with Aaron Heinrich (OSU CSS Dept.) leading the effort (as well as with the hairy nightshade model). All developed as part of the CROPTIME project.
For this update we have one major new feature added, new models added, and a couple bugs fixed. The feature is a choice of extended forecasting (past the 5-7 day forecast) including:
New models include 1) Numerous cucumber and additional broccoli models for the CROPTIME system, 2) Hairy nightshade also for the CROPTIME project.
- a) The NEW NMME 7-month seasonal forecast (choice #5 in pull down lists) - this is currently last and not the default option because it is new and experimental. See here for more info. This forecast is a product of a grant provided by a USDA/NIFA/CPPM/ARDP project.
- b) 10 year average data (current default).
- c) 30 year average (NORMALS).
- d) Last year's data from same station (not always available depending on weather station).
- e) 2 year's ago data from same sation (not always available depending on weather station).
This choice of extended forecasts thus far has been added to: Main dd modeling program (ddmodel.us); the CROPTIME dd modeling interface (dd/model); The state/network tables modeling interface, but not to the "MyPest Page" interface or to the "GRASSLinks" interface.
A couple bugs that were fixed: 1) NDFD forecast for today is no longer mistakenly repeated twice; 2) Weather station selection list had been broken as used in Googlemaps station selection. We now have over 27,000 weather stations in our database; 3) Model preview did not always match full model run due to different data (there may still be slight differences due to a difference in the 5-7 day forecast used); 4) State/Network tables had not been updated yet for 2016.
Documentation of Leaf Wetness Calculations:
Many of the plant disease models in this system use leaf wetness (LW) estimates. The following networks generally have leaf wetness sensors (and so are not estimated, but are measured directly):
Oregon Hood River (Adcon and IFPNET)
Oregon Milton Freewater (Adcon)
Oregon Medford (Adcon)
Oregon Willamette Valley (Adcon and Campbell)
Oregon The Dalles (IFPNET)
For weather networks not having their own
LW sensors, we estimate it using a Fox Weather modified version of the Kim et al. (2004) Fuzzy Logic Leaf Wetness (FLLW) Algorithm. The FLLW model uses energy balance principles to assign probabilities to various combinations of temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed that are likely to produce condensation or dew on leaf surfaces. It is relatively robust, can be used in real time, and has worked well thus far in this system.
In addition, because the FLLW algorithm does not account for rainfall-induced leaf wetness, the Fox Weather LLC/IPPC weather/plant disease modeling system includes a precip-drying algorithm (FoxLW). This presumes an exponential-based drying curve and takes into account windspeed, seasonal adjustment, and day/night time.
Details of the FoxLW addition are:
-For rainfall at 0.05 in/hr, LW=10 for that hr
-at 0.02 in/hr: in summer LW=5, winter or
at night then LW=10.
-LW should end < 0.5 hr after rain ends
during day, and about 1 hr after rain
ends at night if WS=5mph.
-if WS=10mph, then LW ends when rain ends.
-NO LW for rain < 0.02 inch with WS >= 10mph.
-LW = 3 if rain > 0.01 or < 0.02 with WS <=5mph
-WS ranges from 5 to 10mph, LW 3 to 0.
The Kim et al. FLLW and FoxLW models are independent and parallel computations for a Leaf Wetness value: We output the HIGHEST LW of the two (they are NOT ADDED together, we just take the MAXIMUM value).
Changes and updates to this system are in development and expected in forthcoming releases.
What's New 2010-2015
What's New 2004-2009
What's New 2000-2003
What's New 1996-1999
No claims are made as to the correctness or appropriateness of this information for your particular needs. No specific pest control products are intended for
endorsement or use. All responsibility rests solely with the people who interpret and implement information from this and other sources. Use this information
with caution and at your own risk - errors occur, and predictive models do not replace the need for proper monitoring in the field. If you observe conditions that differ substantially from
model predictions, please contact us to determine if the model inputs were incorrect, if the model functioning or weather data are in error, or if the model is inappropriate
for your conditions.
[OR Data Table]
[USA DD Maps]
[DD Calc & Models]
This project funded in part by grants from the USDA-Western Regional IPM program.
On-line since April 5, 1996
Contact Len Coop at email@example.com if you
have any questions about this information.